2011 - Preparing for the Inevitable
for the coming
The solar forcing is computed for 60 degrees in the Northern Hemisphere
according to it we should be in Ice Age conditions or in the transition zone
The next Ice Age is near. If we err by not making the preparations we doom the future of humanity, and possibly us with it.
No one can no with certainty when the next glaciation cycle begins. It could be within a decade of a thousand years. All that we know for certain that it is near. So what must our response be?
If we err on the side of caution in preparing our world as fast a possible for the challenges ahead, we would enjoy the greatest renaissance ever created that such a preparation would require. This means that we would live in a greatly enriched world even before the upgrading of our world would be absolutely needed for our survival.
However, if we err by failing to get the preparation done in time, the resulting consequences of tarrying on this vital front would likely force the death of 90% of mankind, since no one can exist without food.
So what are we going to do? Science cannot give us a precise time schedule of the universe. The Milankovitch Cycles, the lower portion of the diagram, of the combined effects on the solar heating of the Earth in respect to the Earth's orbital characteristics, are inconclusive. They are too weak to explain the historic climate cycles, nor do the computed patterns match the observed historic patterns. In one case an interglacial period preceded the computed cause by 10,000 years.. The thereby observed evidence suggests that is still larger factor is superimposed, which is currently an unresolved enigma, because it is of a too distant origin, being located in the dynamics of the galaxy itself. According to the Milankovitch Cycles, we should be in glaciation already (as the lower portion of the graph, of the "solar forcing") illustrates.
Indeed, the enigma cannot be resolved based on the observation that the thermal energy output of the Sun with its expression on Earth, is the only factor in the climate equation. And ere is where the problem lies. It is assumed that our Sun is a constant factor, a factor without variations. This is however not the case. The evidence tells us that the Sun is NOT a constant factor, since it is known that the solar heliosphere that is powered by the Sun, has been shrinking for the last 50 years.
The interaction between the solar activity and the climate on Earth is simple. Since the heliosphere attenuates the incoming cosmic radiation, which causes cloud formation by idolization in the troposphere, the shrinking of the heliosphere results in increased cosmic radiation, and with it increased cloud formation, and thereby colder climates on Earth. This is indeed what is already being experienced at the present time. The Earth has been in a steep cooling trend since 1998, according to on-the-ground measurements taken at the Solar Terrestrial Institute in Irkutsk.
Since our Sun is not self-powered, but is an electrically powered energy converter, powered by external sources, and these sources are rooted in the dynamics of the galaxy as a whole, the cyclical nature of these sources is not mechanistically predictable. The 100,000 year cycle falls within the range of the electric loop time of a dynamic system that is 50,000 light years in radius, as our galaxy is. Short anomalies within such a system could easily be expressed in brief interglacial periods such as have been historically experienced.
The point is that due to the complexities involved, and the entire galaxy being constantly in motion, no precise predictions are possible. Whoever says that we have still a thousand years left in the current interglacial, has just as much a chance of being correct than the one who says that the transition to the next glaciation cycles has already started. The resulting uncertainty factor however leaves the scene wide open to potentially dangerous policy pursuits. The only certain factor that is known in the entire Ice Age dynamics, is that the interglacial periods have been short for the last million years, and have without exceptions, ended, and that we are close to another such occurrence. That's all we have to go by. The only factor that is certain in the entire equation of the return of the Ice Age, is that our civilization, if not our very existence, depends on how we respond to the little that we do know.
The Milankovitch (26/41/100,000-year) Cycles
Published by Cygni Communications Ltd. North Vancouver, BC, Canada - (C) - public domain - Rolf A. F. Witzsche